Politics
Elections through Candidate, our Bayesian candidate-strength model.
Candidate strength, 2026 midterms
Which candidates actually helped their party in 2026?
Candidate predicts what every House and Senate race "should" have been, based on the 2024 presidential margin, the national mood, incumbency, endorsements and demographics. Then it measures how far each nominee ran ahead of or behind that.
Strongest candidates
Points gained or lost for their party vs. expectation
Susan Collins
+7.6
Dan Osborn
+5.9
Andy Barr
+5.3
Shawn Harris
+5.1
John Reed
+4.3
John Deaton
+4.2
Pat Ryan
+4.2
Adrian Smith
+4.0
Nicholas A. Langworthy
+3.8
Brian Fitzpatrick
+3.6
Yvette Clarke
+3.6
Christina Bohannan
+3.4
Source: Candidate (v4) · bars show 90% credible intervals
Weakest candidates
Points gained or lost for their party vs. expectation
Joel Azumah
-4.6
Ilhan Omar
-4.5
Cindy Hyde-Smith
-4.4
Becky Stille
-4.2
Lauren Boebert
-3.6
Jackie Mary Auringer
-3.5
Mariannette Miller-Meeks
-3.4
Brian L Bengs
-3.4
Robert G. Burke
-3.3
Lupe Castillo
-3.3
Darline Graham
-3.1
Roger Marshall
-3.0
Source: Candidate (v4) · bars show 90% credible intervals
Ranks 446 of 890 nominees; races where both nominees appear only once are left out, because the model can't tell which one deserves the credit.
2026 Senate: race by race
| Race | Matchup | Expected | Actual | Dem over/under | Sure? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TX | James Talarico Ken Paxton | -0.5 | +13.9 | +13.1 | >99% |
| RI | John Reed Raymond McKay | +32.7 | +39.0 | +6.0 | 98% |
| KS | Adam Hamilton Roger Marshall | -0.9 | +5.2 | +5.6 | 99% |
| SC | Annie Andrews Darline Graham | -1.5 | +4.6 | +5.6 | 99% |
| MS | Scott Colom Cindy Hyde-Smith | -5.2 | +0.3 | +5.3 | 98% |
| NC | Roy Cooper Michael Whatley | +15.5 | +20.1 | +4.2 | 96% |
| NE | Dan Osborn Pete Ricketts | -10.9 | -6.6 | +4.2 | 95% |
| AR | Hallie Shoffner Tom Cotton | -16.8 | -12.3 | +4.1 | 94% |
| NM | Ben R. Lujan Larry E. Marker | +22.2 | +26.5 | +3.9 | 90% |
| GA | Jon Ossoff Mike Collins | +14.8 | +18.1 | +2.9 | 90% |
| LA | Jamie Davis Julia Letlow | -4.7 | -1.8 | +2.7 | 84% |
| AK | Mary Peltola Dan S. Sullivan | -0.5 | +1.2 | +1.9 | 71% |
| OH-S | Sherrod Brown Jon Husted | +4.0 | +5.1 | +1.1 | 69% |
| NJ | Cory Booker Justin Murphy | +27.1 | +28.2 | +0.9 | 66% |
| IL | Juliana Stratton Don Tracy | +24.1 | +25.1 | +0.9 | 65% |
| IA | Josh Turek Ashley Hinson | +3.6 | +4.3 | +0.5 | 59% |
| FL-S | Angie Nixon Ashley Moody | -3.3 | -2.9 | +0.4 | 57% |
| VA | Mark Warner Bert Mizusawa | +23.0 | +22.7 | -0.3 | 56% |
| CO | John Hickenlooper Mark Baisley | +27.4 | +26.6 | -0.7 | 63% |
| AL | Everett Wess Barry Moore | -8.2 | -9.5 | -1.2 | 68% |
| DE | Chris Coons Michael "Dr. Mike" Katz | +29.7 | +27.1 | -2.2 | 77% |
| ID | Todd Achilles Jim Risch | -22.7 | -25.5 | -2.6 | 82% |
| OR | Jeff Merkley David Brock Smith | +23.0 | +19.9 | -2.7 | 86% |
| NH | Chris Pappas John E. Sununu | +17.2 | +14.0 | -2.8 | 83% |
| SD | Brian L Bengs Mike Rounds | -18.0 | -21.0 | -3.3 | 87% |
| MI | Abdul El-Sayed Mike Rogers | +11.2 | +7.2 | -3.5 | 93% |
| WV | Rachel Fetty Anderson Shelley Moore Capito | -17.1 | -21.1 | -3.8 | 89% |
| TN | Marquita Bradshaw Bill Hagerty | -8.0 | -12.4 | -4.0 | 98% |
| OK | N'Kiyla Jasmine Thomas Kevin Hern | -14.3 | -18.6 | -4.0 | 94% |
| KY | Charles Booker Andy Barr | -8.1 | -12.3 | -4.0 | 94% |
| MN | Peggy Flanagan Michele Tafoya | +15.4 | +10.4 | -4.5 | 96% |
| WY | James Byrd Harriet Hageman | -24.3 | -30.5 | -5.6 | 96% |
| MA | Edward J. Markey John Deaton | +39.4 | +32.7 | -6.3 | 99% |
| ME | Troy Jackson Susan Collins | +17.1 | +6.6 | -10.0 | >99% |
Margins are Democratic minus Republican. "Sure?" is the posterior probability that the race really ran in that direction.
Looking ahead: 2028
>99%
60
98%
351
Democratic Senate seats after 2028
Share of simulations, fundamentals forecast
48Dem Senate seats73
Source: Candidate · no polls, no candidates, two years out
| If 2028 looks like… | Senate | Pres. |
|---|---|---|
| Tsunami 2.0: repeat of 2026 (D+12.9) | >99% | >99% |
| 2008-like (D+11.1) | >99% | >99% |
| D+9 (Silver's FLIPR fundamentals) | >99% | >99% |
| Good, not great: D+5 | >99% | 98% |
| 2012-like (D+1.2) | >99% | 80% |
| 2016-like (R+1.1) | 99% | 54% |
| 2024-like (R+2.6) | 98% | 35% |
| 2014-like R wave (R+5.9) | 90% | 7% |
Chance Democrats win each, under alternative national environments.